Coming Events
(Contact me at mail@sosmin.com or (510) 282-5629 for outreach locations and times one or two days before outreach.)
Friday January 8, 15, 22, 29 Witnessing in San Francisco neighborhoods.
Saturday January 9, 16, 23, 30 Witnessing in San Francisco neighborhoods. SF 12-5 PM
THE ENDLESS LOCKDOWN
Dear Christian friends,
Ben Franklin wrote that “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” While his quote is taken out of context, it is certainly something we should be thinking about in today’s world.
There have been many pandemics throughout world history, some of which killed millions of people worldwide. However, never before has there been a worldwide social and economic lockdown and mass quarantine of healthy people in response to a pandemic. Public health officials have never before recommended such an approach.
When the leaders of our world’s governments became aware of COVID-19, their initial response was to do nothing. On January 24, Dr. Anthony Fauci, whom the New York Times called “the nation’s leading expert on infectious disease,” told us this was not something “right now we should be worried about.” Numerous politicians tried to reassure the public not to be concerned. On Feb. 24, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Chinatown and said there’s no reason tourists or locals should be staying away from the area because of coronavirus concerns. On March 12, Joe Biden tweeted: “A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it.” As late as June 5, 1200 public health authorities signed a letter “in response to emerging narratives that seemed to malign demonstrations as risky for the public health because of Covid-19.”
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1238254697695326209?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
However, on March 16, epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, UK, based upon a computer model he had developed, estimated US COVID deaths would be 2.2 million without a lockdown. Using that model, Drs. Fauci and Birx persuaded President Trump to issue his shutdown recommendations.
On March 26, the SF Bay Area counties, and soon after almost every US state and almost every nation, issued shutdown orders based upon Ferguson’s model. The initial reason given by our government for their order was to flatten the curve (keep hospitals from being overwhelmed). Almost everywhere, hospitals were empty and 1.4 million healthcare workers were laid off in April.
The initial 15 day shutdown has continued for 9 months with no end in sight. What we have seen is that whenever restrictions are lifted somewhat, the “cases” increase, so the restrictions are often put back into effect. That is happening right now in many US states and in much of Europe.
In March, 2020, no health authority was recommending that people should wear masks. On March 8, Fauci said, “Right now, people should not be worried. There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet but it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. And often there are unintended consequences. People keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face.” However, within a few months, the recommendations suddenly changed. Today, billions of people worldwide have been forced to wear masks both by government orders and by private businesses. Teaching children that they must always wear a mask and stay far from other humans lest they die or kill others, and mothers hiding their faces from their babies — that certainly can’t be healthy for children.
Another popular quote (falsely attributed to Einstein) says “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” Governments have imposed endless lockdowns, social distancing and mask wearing orders in most states and nations for the past 9 months. Nowhere have they stopped the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 6, New York Governor Cuomo said he was shocked to learn that 66% of COVID hospitalizations in his state were of people who were staying home and another 18% were in nursing homes. “This is a surprise: Overwhelmingly, the people were at home,” he added. “We thought maybe they were taking public transportation, and we’ve taken special precautions on public transportation, but actually no, because these people were literally at home.” Cuomo said nearly 84% of the hospitalized cases were people who were not commuting to work through car services, personal cars, public transit or walking. He said a majority of those people were either retired or unemployed. But he didn’t end the lockdown.
Epidemiology professors at Harvard, Stanford and Oxford Universities wrote the “Great Barrington Declaration” opposing the lockdowns as a means of fighting the pandemic. They wrote, “Basic epidemiological theory indicates that lockdowns do not reduce the total number of cases in the long run and have never in history led to the eradication of a disease. At best, lockdowns delay the increase of cases for a finite period and at great cost.” Over 50,000 medical scientists and health care practitioners have signed the declaration.
Written by: Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.
Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.
Co-signers include: Dr. Michael Levitt, biophysicist and professor of structural biology, Stanford University, USA. Recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.
Dr. Alexander Walker, principal at World Health Information Science Consultants, former Chair of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, USA
Dr. David Katz, physician and president, True Health Initiative, and founder of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA
Dr. Lisa White, professor of modelling and epidemiology, Oxford University, England
Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden
Dr. Angus Dalgleish, oncologist, infectious disease expert and professor, St. George’s Hospital Medical School, University of London, England
Dr. Anthony J Brookes, professor of genetics, University of Leicester, England
Dr. Ariel Munitz, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Dr. David Livermore, microbiologist, infectious disease epidemiologist and professor, University of East Anglia, England
Dr. Eyal Shahar, physician, epidemiologist and professor (emeritus) of public health, University of Arizona, USA
Dr. Gabriela Gomes, mathematician studying infectious disease epidemiology, professor, University of Strathclyde, Scotland
Dr. Gerhard Krönke, physician and professor of translational immunology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany
Dr. Helen Colhoun, professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden
However, our government officials have ignored their advice. They keep insisting that just one more lockdown, just wear the masks a bit longer, stay far away from other humans, and we will stop the virus from spreading. And most people are unaware that so many experts oppose the lockdowns.
A principle taught to every healthcare student is “First do no harm.” Any government official ordering a massive lockdown ought to consider the costs as well as the benefits of his/her actions. It seems that those ordering this worldwide lockdown only considered the potential benefits, not the costs. In May, Stanford Professor Scott Atlas calculated that, in the US. 700,000 years of life are lost each month due to the national lockdown compared to 400,000 years of life lost each month through COVID. These costs include failure to get treatment for various diseases, increased drug, alcohol, and suicide deaths, etc. Besides these deaths, great harm has been done to our society from shutting down churches and schools, social isolation, etc.
According to a late-March Kaiser Family Foundation survey, 19 percent of adults reported a “major impact” on their mental health do to COVID, the media response, and the government-ordered lockdown (43 million Americans). A 2015 meta-analysis in the Journal of the American Medical Association Psychiatry found that anxiety increases the risk of death by 43 percent, while depression increases it by 71 percent.
A 2011 meta-analysis in the journal Social Science & Medicine found that “unemployment is associated with a substantially increased risk of death among broad segments of the population.” The jobless have a 63 percent higher risk of mortality. Importantly, the death correlation “is significant in both the short and long term” and added unemployment benefits are unlikely to mitigate the deadliness of joblessness.
But the suffering and deaths the lockdown has caused in the U.S. is quite small compared to the price paid by those living in poor nations. According to the director of the UN Food Program, 130 million additional people worldwide are in danger of starvation from the lockdown. Throughout the third world, hundreds of millions of people who had begun to climb their way out of poverty have been forced back into poverty by the forced closing of many businesses, especially tourism. Without money, they can barely feed themselves and cannot pay for shelter or medical care. Government help for them is minimal or non-existent. “For a third of the world’s children, at least 463 million children whose schools closed due to COVID-19, there was no such a thing as remote learning.” Henrietta Fore, UNICEF.
Oct. 10, 2010: The World Health Organization has backflipped on its original COVID-19 stance after calling for world leaders to stop locking down their countries and economies. WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19, Dr. David Nabarro, appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method” of the coronavirus. “Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.
We have certainly given up a lot of liberty and have gained very little or no safety.
When I was saved in 1970, I read in Revelation about how nobody would be able to buy or sell unless they took the “mark of the beast.” At the time, I wondered whether people who love freedom, even if they weren’t Christians, would be willing to take that mark. Today, I see how easy it would be for a world dictator to get people to obey such an order.
As Christians, each of us should also weigh the risks and rewards of preaching the gospel during this pandemic. For me (I turn 75 this month), the risk I take in bringing the gospel to the lost during this pandemic is insignificant compared to the eternal reward. My reward is knowing that the gospel is going out to many people and that some will be saved from eternal Hell.
THE GREAT BARRINGTON DECLARATION
As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection.
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.
The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.
Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
https://www.gbdeclaration.org
On the Streets
On July 11, after our outreach at 16th and Mission, we witnessed at Dolores Park. A group of 30 Christians from Love-San Francisco has started meeting in that park. They had a PA system and preached and sang. The police were called and shut down their PA system. However, one of the officers asked them for prayer, so they prayed with him. We preached with Matthew’s large portable PA right outside the only open bathroom in the park. We preached and witnessed to those who were waiting as long as an hour to use the bathroom, as well as those who were sitting nearby.
On Sat. July 18, we held our first Fisherman’s Wharf outreach since the lockdown began. I was concerned about being shut down, but we had no problems with the police. There were many street vendors in the area. We set up our PA at the best spot on the Wharf, next to the Franciscan Restaurant on the waterfront. We also sent two teams to preach down the street with smaller amps. We had not invited any musicians, but Caleb Mills showed up and sang worship songs. We gave out several hundred gospel tracts. Mike witnessed to Eddie, 30, near the Pier 39 entrance. He was with two women who were mocking, but he wanted to listen. A security guard at Pier 39 called the police, but when an officer finally arrived, he looked at our group, spoke briefly with the guard and drove off.
On Sat. July 25, we returned to Fisherman’s Wharf. Paul and Noreen Coca, Tim Moon, and Caleb Mills all played music. About 20 Christians witnessed in three locations. Mike witnessed to John, 41, for two hours. When he was 14, John had murdered a man molesting that man’s 8 year old daughter. He left home and lived on the streets when he was 14. He joined the Marines and became a sniper. He is very intelligent and has three college degrees, but believes in a Viking god.
Garrett and Mike ministered to Javier, a Christian from Tijuana with an alcohol problem. He was living on the streets but wanted to get into a Christian program. After making some phone calls, we learned that most Christian programs are not taking in people because of COVID, but the Salvation Army in San Francisco would on Monday. Mike and I drove around for over 2 hours trying to help him. We went to a homeless shelter, but learned that the only way to get into a homeless shelter is to first go to a hospital. Mike eventually bought him a bus ticket to Palmdale, where he knows a pastor.
On July 31, we resumed our Friday night outreaches. The week before, I drove through San Francisco and found several places that were busy enough for Friday night outreaches. Our first Friday outreach was at 16th St. & Valencia.
Ministry News
Thank you again for your prayers and financial support for this ministry. After painting the back half of our house, we decided to ask Scott’s son Mike to paint the rest of our house. It had not been painted for 20 years. The total cost will be about $6000.
When the COVID lockdown began, I asked newsletter readers for ideas and resources for internet evangelism. Here is a way to witness online to Jewish “seekers”: jforj.org/net.
Come quickly, Lord Jesus!
Yours in His love,
Larry Rosenbaum
